@article{oai:rakuno.repo.nii.ac.jp:00007110,
 author = {MAKITA, Kohei and 蒔田, 浩平 and 磯田, 典和 and 伊藤, 聡 and 福元, 風夏 and 伊藤, 貢 and 桑田, 桂輔},
 issue = {12},
 journal = {日本獣医師会雑誌},
 month = {Dec},
 note = {Article, In Japan, classical swine fever re-emerged in September 2018, after an absence of 26 years, and spread among wild boar populations. This study was conducted to understand the transmissibility of classical swine fever virus in wild boar populations, limited by the impossibility of a correct case count because of the nature of wildlife. Wildlife PCR test results between September 2018 and Februar y 2019 were collected from the homepages of Gifu, Aichi, and Mie Prefectures. In descriptive epidemiology, the geographical spread in the three prefectures, and temporal patterns of PCR test positivity in Gifu Prefecture were obser ved. Using the Susceptible (S) - Exposed (E) - Infectious (I) - Recover y (R) model, assuming the weekly test positivity follows beta distribution, parameters were estimated in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, and the basic reproduction number (R_0) was calculated. As a result, the mean infectious period was as long as 100-145 days, and R_0 was estimated to be 4.2 - 5.1. In this analysis, however, population dynamics considering bir ths and deaths and population density were not considered. In the future, a more detailed study based on wild boar field data is necessary., 豚熱は2018年9月，わが国で26年ぶりに発生し，野生イノシシ集団に感染拡大した．本研究は，野生動物であるがゆえに正確な発生数が計測できない悪条件を克服し，野生イノシシ集団における豚熱ウイルスの伝達性を把握するために実施された．2018年9月～2019年2月の野生イノシシ豚熱PCR検査結果を岐阜県，愛知県，三重県のホームページから入手した．記述疫学では，調査3 県にまたがる豚熱の地理的拡大と岐阜県におけるPCR検査陽性率の推移を観察した．感受性（S）─感染性待ち期間（E）─感染性（I）─回復期（R）モデルにより，岐阜県における週ごとの検査陽性率がベータ分布に則ることを仮定し，マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロシミュレーションによりモデルのパラメータを導出し，基本再生産数（R_0）を計算した．解析の結果，感染性期間は100～145日間と長く，R_0 は4.2～ 5.1と推定された．本解析には死亡と出生を含む個体群動態と生息密度が考慮されておらず，今後野生イノシシのフィールドデータに基づく詳細な解析が望まれる．},
 pages = {819--825},
 title = {野生イノシシ集団での豚熱発生初期における基本再生産数の推定},
 volume = {74},
 year = {2021}
}